Victory Odds

Probabilities use each player's own results strictly before the selected game. For each numbered remaining hole, its empirical stroke distribution is combined with the other remaining holes. This assumes hole scores are independent. These are model estimates from limited history, not measured real-world odds. Winning means finishing outright ahead; a tie is not a win.

Historic best is the record entering this round. Theoretical best combines the best recorded score on each hole across all released games for this course and play mode.

When on, shades each player's plausible path: at each hole, the band runs from their actual score up to the previous hole plus their historic minimum on this hole, to that same actual score plus their historic maximum (same historic sample as above), based on their scores strictly before this game.

A player's percentage is how often their possible remaining scores would produce an outright victory against that scenario's opponent projection. Each player is assessed separately, so the percentages are not shares of one result and do not need to add up to 100%. See Relative likelihood of victory below for a view that always sums to 100%.

Uses the same historic sample selection as above. Each player's own remaining-hole distribution is compared jointly against everyone else's, at every hole. A finish where several players' possible totals tie for the lead is split between them rather than counted as a loss for everyone, so these shares always add up to 100% - this is each player's relative share of the win compared only to the others in this game, not their standalone odds of an outright win. Hover a hole to see every player's share, highest first. While a round is in progress, shares are solid through the last completed hole, then held at those values with a hatched fill through hole 18 until the next hole's scores are entered.

This percentage is how often the player's possible remaining scores would give them a final total strictly lower than the all-time record entering that round. Small non-zero estimates retain extra digits in the tooltip. A zero means no record-breaking finish exists within the selected model's remaining scores, not that the player can never break the record. Hover to compare the best attainable finish in that model with all prior personal scores. The vertical scale adjusts to the estimates shown.

Record threats

Every round checked against the all-time record it was chasing at the time, at the checkpoints after holes 9, 12 and 15 - ranked by how late the record pace survived before falling off.